“How could a 20-something with no known experience in governing a country, much less a nuclear-armed nation with a moribund economy under the tightening noose of sanctions, possibly survive?” That is the question asked by Pak, a former C.I.A. officer who tells us how Kim Jong-un surprised just about everyone by subduing domestic rivals and keeping foreign adversaries at bay.
Since the sudden death of his predecessor and father in December 2011, Kim has not only held onto power but has also changed the direction of the regime, created a fearsome arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and dazzled the international community with diplomatic flair.
How did he accomplish so much? Not by being timid, Pak explains. It was with swagger. And ruthlessness. Kim is fond of the brazen move and has made plenty of them, some murderous. He has purged more than 340 senior regime figures since late 2013, executing many.
Yet perhaps Kim has now reached the end of the line. Pak perceptively recognizes Kim’s limitations, comparing him to Icarus “flying too close to the sun” by “making promises that he can’t fulfill.” At some point, Kim will have to deliver on those promises. As Pak notes, the North’s jangmadang — market generation — is demanding prosperity, regime officials are demanding the continuation of privileges and the United States is demanding disarmament.
Washington must do more than just disarm Kim. “We have to shape and constrain his ambitions and illusions,” Pak writes. If Washington policymakers are to accomplish that, they will have to adopt new tactics as the old ones have obviously not been working.
