Assessing the state of the West today—from the nationalism roiling Europe to America's fresh skepticism of long-held alliances and global commitments—some might wonder whether the Western world order is on the brink of a breakdown. If it is, what will replace it? Parag Khanna, a Singapore-based global-strategy adviser, has one answer. In “The Future Is Asian,” he argues that the world's largest continent—Mr. Khanna would say “megaregion”—is becoming increasingly blended into one political, cultural and economic unit poised to overtake a waning West.
Asia, as Mr. Khanna defines it, is as immense as it is diverse, stretching from the Red Sea to the Sea of Japan and accounting for 40% of global GDP. This vastness alone makes part of his thesis feel like a near certainty. Five billion people now make up the Asian megaregion. India and China are already at more than a billion each, and according to United Nations estimates Indonesia and Pakistan will each swell to more than 300 million people by 2050. A bet on Asia's continued and increasing importance is low-risk.
The more interesting story begins where human civilization did, in West Asia's Mesopotamia. Mr. Khanna traces the relations among Asia's great empires of antiquity—in India, Iran and China—and discerns a pattern. In European history, war often followed when a rising power threatened to displace a dominant one—the so-called Thucydides Trap. But in Asia, Mr. Khanna notes, wars have arisen “when there is a perception of significant advantage over rivals.” So prospects for regional peace will only improve as India, Japan and Russia strengthen alongside China. It's a useful perspective for those too focused on Western precedents for Asia's direction.
